ボックス･チャートは、株式の売買において発生する価格と出来高の関係に注目し、これを売買シグナルに転換することを指向するものです。
従来のチャートは横軸に時間を置いたものです。
ボックス･チャートでは、時間の要素よりも「出来高」の要素を重視します。
ボックス理論では次の三つのパラメーターを使います。
これらのデータを使って、ボックスを表示します。
ボックスの形状あるいは ボックスレシオ Box Ratio が株式の値動きを示しています。すなわち、細身のボックスと太身のボックスがそれぞれ異なった値動きの状況を表現しています。
細身のボックス Thin boxes:
細身のボックス（高さ＞幅）は急速な値動きを意味し、大きな力が凌駕しつつあることを暗示します。
太身のボックス Fat boxes:
太身のボックス（高さ＜幅）は売り手から買い手への株式の移動が少ない抵抗のもとで行なわれていることを示しています。いわゆる横這い市場で、コンソリデーション（集積）期にあると言うこともできます。
下図ではボックスＡが前後のボックスより細く、急速な下降トレンドを暗示しています。買付けにはしばらくの猶予が望ましい状況です。ボックスＢでは、より太身の形状が見られ、そろそろ買い場に近づいてきたことを暗示しています。
ボックスＣは、さらに理想的な仕込み時期で、上昇が検知されたら買いを入れることになりましょう。ボックスＢの時点では、下降が完全に止まったとは言い切れないものが残ります。
この原理がイタの理論的背景であり、別項の ボックス･アナライザー機能 Box Analyzer Function や ボリューム・アナライザー機能 Volume Analyzer (VA) それから スムーズ機能 Smoothing Function, などの機能により精密な買い、売りタイミングを提示していくのです。
グラフの縮尺は縦、横にリアルタイムで伸縮させることができます。（参照： 拡張／縮小 stretch and compress ）これにより細身と太身のボックスを明確に判断することが可能になります。（参照： ボックス･レシオ box ratio）
ボックス･チャートは株式のテクニカル･アナリシスに高い効果があります。それは、その形状によって値動きの抵抗度が判定できるからです。 ボックス･アナライザー機能 Box Analyzer Function はこの理論を株式売買のタイミングを計ることに応用することに成功しました。
何らかの特異な力により、ボックスの形状（ボックス･レシオ）が、予期された形状（レシオ）から乖離することがあります。次の例をご覧ください。
(1) 垂直乖離 Vertical-deviations (Box Height):
格安の株式では、比較的幅の大きい株価の広がり＝スプレッドを持っているのが一般的です。株価のスプレッドとは、一日の場中で、買い手の希望価格（ＢＩＤ＝ビッド・プライス）と売り手の希望価格（ＡＳＫ＝アスク･プライス）が大きく異なるということです。スプレッドは高値と安値の差＝レンジとは別物です。レンジは総合的な一日の価格幅であり、スプレッドよりもその幅は大きいのが通常です。
理想的には、スプレッドがレンジに与える影響は最少であるべきなのですが、格安株式の場合はその影響がかなり大きくなることが検証されています。従って、ボックス形状＝レンジが必ずしも買い勢力と売り勢力の力関係を正確に表わさない嫌いがあることにご留意下さい。
(2) 水平乖離 Horizontal-deviations (Box Width):
ボックスの幅は、予見できなかった出来高の急増で急激に拡大や縮小することがあります。原因として、次のようなものが考えられます。
Box
Charting
Box Charting, alternatively known as Equivolume Charting (Ref: Richard
Arms in recommended reading), focuses
on the naturally occuring price and volume cycles that typically prevail
with stocks. When represented graphically, they can be used to your advantage.
Conventional stock graphs are plotted against a time scale:
In
Box Charting methodology, a traditional linear time-scale is not used. Instead,
data is plotted against a VOLUME scale...
Note:
Although not illustrated above, Insider TA allows Date Marker Lines to be added to Box Charts.
In box charting, only three parameters are significant for each trading
period:
・High (Ask) price
・Low (Bid) price
・Volume (# shares traded)
These three data items are used to plot boxes:
The
resulting shapes of the boxes are governed by the relative sizes of each
Hi/Low/Vol combination, as well as the vertical (price) and horizontal (volume)
graph scale chosen for plotting.
How to Interpret a
box chart:
Simply stated,
the shape of a box, or box ratio, provides
insight on a stock's price advance in a given direction. The primary objective
of viewing a box chart is to distinguish the "thin" boxes from
the "fat" boxes.
Thin boxes:
"Thin"
boxes (height > width) reflect rapid movement, revealing that a dominant
force is prevailing.
・A chain of thin boxes in an upward direction reflects an overwhelming
buying force (greed
dominates
fear). Stated
another way, fewer stock holders are willing to sell their shares at the
going price (demand is high), so the potential buyers must bid higher.
・A chain of thin boxes in an downward direction reflects an overwhelming
selling force (i.e., fear
dominates
greed). In other
words, fewer investors are willing to buy the stock at a given price (demand
is low), so motivated sellers are forced to lower their asking price.
Fat boxes:
"Fat"
boxes (width > height) reveal that the transfer of stock from Seller
to Buyer is occuring with little resistence. This situation reflects a
sluggish movement of the stock, and often results in a trading period where
the stock remains in the same price range, referred to as a consolidation
period.
An
"Ideal" Example:
The
following example shows how box charting reflects the movement of a stock.
Box "A", which is thin relative to neighboring boxes, reveals
rapid movement DOWNWARD. If you are looking to buy this stock, it would
be best to wait a few more days until the movement is completed. As the
boxes approach box "B", note how the boxes are getting fatter.
This would be a better (and less costly) time to make your investment.
A more prudent approach is to delay buying until a move is seen in the UPWARD
direction, as shown near box "C". After all, the box shape at
"B" reflects sluggish movement for the time being, and does not
guarantee that the stock will not return to its downward trend. Other analysis
tools, such as the Box Analyzer Function, Volume Analyzer (VA) function, and the Smoothing
Function,
may provide further insight on the correct time to buy.
Adjusting
a Box Chart's graph scales:
Distinguishing
"thin" and "fat" boxes is a rather subjective task since
the shape of the boxes is a reflection of the horizontal (volume) and vertical
(price) scales assigned to the chart. So how do we determine the "correct"
plotting scales? Manually plotting the boxes, which permanently presets
the horizontal and vertical axis to fixed scales, limits the potential that
box-charting can offer, since the shape of the boxes is significant. Insider
TA provides the unique ability to stretch and compress the graph both vertically and
horizontally in real-time. This enables you to alter the graph proportions
so that the "fat" boxes can be distinguished from the "thin"
boxes (see help on box ratio).
Box
Charting Effectiveness:
Box
Charting has been found to be an effective tool in the technical analysis
of stocks, because the relative shapes of each box reflects how easily a
price movement is advancing. The Box Analyzer Function is a powerful tool that exploits
this theory.
You should be aware of certain circumstances where box ratios might deviate
from naturally occuring trading trends. The following two paragraphs outline
how "external" forces can detract from anticipated box ratios:
(1) Vertical-deviations (Box Height):
Penny stocks merit some discussion here. It is common for stocks with
low trading prices to have, relatively speaking, large price spreads. The
"spread" is the difference between a stock's BID and ASK price
at any instant throughout the day's trading. The price spread is not the
same as the overall price range, the latter of which reflects the extreme
HIGH and LOW price limits during the entire trading period (day or week).
Ideally, box charting works best when the "spread" has minimal
influence on the overall price range for a given trading period (day or
week). After all, we want the price range (translating to a box's height)
to accurately reflect the buying and selling forces in action during a given
trading period (day or week). Unfortunately, with penny stocks, the price
spread often dominates the overall price range, and hence the height of
the box does not accurately reflect these buying and selling forces.
(2) Horizontal-deviations (Box Width):
The widths of boxes can suddenly explode in size, reflecting an unprecedented
increase in trading volume. This might reflect any one of the following
situations:
・Insider trading.
・Institutional investing.
・Public offering by the company.
・Stock split.
If any of the above situations arise, the graph can be stretched or
compressed,
either vertically or horizontally to compensate for this effect.
Summary:
In
most cases, you will discover that the characteristics of box charting do
prevail for most stocks. Consider Insider TA's method of box charting an
additional analysis tool to know the "ideal" time to invest. In
our opinion, knowledge of the company and their fundamentals is still important
-- the strategy is entirely up to you.
See Recommended
Reading.
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